The Corn And Ethanol Report: February 19, 2020

Good Morning!

We started the day with MBA Mortgage Applications coming in at -6.4% vs. the previous up 1.1%, MBA 30-year mortgage rate coming in at 3.77% vs. the previous 3.72%, Fed Bostic Speech at 7:10 A.m., Housing starts and permits and PPI at 7:30 A.M., Redbook at 7:55 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 10:45, Fed Kaplan Speech at 12:30 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.m., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. and Fed Barkin Speech at 3:30 P.M. Tack on earnings today with Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NYSE:H) reporting after the close. Its earnings are expected to be dismal as they built high-end hotels in Asia and absorbed a hit with the coronavirus.

On the corn front it looks like we will have a lower open down 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 . The market is watching a few keys, hoping the U.S. dollar will not move into the overvalued zone for trade, China continues to stimulate their economy, which should lead to a fury of Ag purchases and Friday’s weekly Export Sales will continue to see Mexican buying and surprises from other parts of the globe. In the overnight electronic session the March Corn is currently trading at 381 1.2, which is 1 1/2 of a cent lower. The trading range has been 382 3/4 to 381.

On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The April contract settled at 1.381 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.377 and 12 offers @ 1.390 with Open Interest exceeding the March contract at 267 contracts so we will roll to April.

On the Crude Oil front the March contract expires tomorrow. Yesterday’s action had the market rebound in significant fashion. The rally showed traders had realized that China will continue buying energies as they did a purchase last week. They will also be buying on the backend, as the coronavirus is starting to look like it has been neutralized and their factories will be getting back to work working overtime to catch up that will require more Energy. Don’t forget we have OPEC+ production cuts, Libya is offline and we have API Energy Stocks later. In the overnight electronic session the April Crude Oil is currently trading at 5308, which is 79 points higher. The trading range has been 5317 to 5216.

On the Natural gas front yesterday’s big move may have priced in the Artic blast and warmer temperatures are forecasted for the weekend. Look Out Below. This could be another squeeze play and could be over again. In the overnight electronic session the March Natural Gas is currently trading 1.961 which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 1.978 to 1.948.

Have a Great Trading Day!