The White House early warning system worked, but like the test sirens for tornado warnings, the siren may have been ignored. Peter Navarro the Assistant to the President and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, warned Trump administration officials in late January that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death.
The warning written in a memo, circulated inside the West Wing of the White House, right as the administration was taking its first steps to confront the virus.
Mr. Navarro said in the memo that the administration faced a choice about how aggressive to be in containing an outbreak, saying the human and economic costs would be relatively low if it turned out to be a problem along the lines of a seasonal flu. But he went on to emphasize that the “risk of a worst-case pandemic scenario should not be overlooked” given the information coming from China. In one worst-case scenario described in the memo, more than a half-million Americans could die.
The subject line of the memo was “Impose Travel Ban on China?” and Navarro opened the memo with, “If the probability of a pandemic is greater than roughly 1%, a game-theoretic analysis of the coronavirus indicates the clear dominant strategy is an immediate travel ban on China.”
It’s not clear whether the President saw the memo or not, but he approved the China travel ban the next day.
Biotech
Vir Biotech teams up with GlaxoSmithKline
Shares of Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ: VIR) ran up over 30% on Monday pulling back 10% on Tuesday as GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSKE) said it would invest $250 million in the biotech company and collaborate to develop potential antibody treatments for the COVID-19. Antibodies (or immunoglobulins) are proteins that can stick to the surface of bacteria and viruses. They are all designed to attack only one kind of virus or bacteria.
They clearly are trying to work quickly given how fast the novel coronavirus spread and became a deadly pandemic. They’ve started the research without having a clinical development and manufacturing agreement in place. They will be asking to skip phase 1 testing to go directly into a phase 2 clinical trial within the next three to five months as long as they can get regulatory approval.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that multiple therapeutic approaches, used in combination or in sequence, will be necessary to stop this coronavirus pandemic. It is likely that the current coronavirus outbreak will not be the last,” said George Scangos, CEO of San Francisco-based Vir Technology, in a statement.
This type of joint cooperation and speed should be the norm when dealing with disease, not the exception. When President Trump was asked, referring to COVID-19, “how many deaths are acceptable?” he responded, “None”. That should be the case with any disease.
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Russia Will Cut Oil Production But There’s a Catch
Bloomberg is reporting that Russia has verbally agreed to cut its oil production by one million barrels per day (bpd) which would be 10% lower than its March output. But it has one condition. It wants the U.S., to cut production as well.
This request actually made Saudi Arabia angrier than they already were. They responded by accusing Russia of starting the oil price war in the first place, by refusing to cut more production then the OPEC plus organization already had agreed to. Saudi Arabia said that Russia deliberately caused the price fight to try and hurt the U.S. shale industry.
This spat may have played a role in the delay of an OPEC+ meeting initially scheduled for Monday to Thursday in hopes that the tension might cool down.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has called on Western European producers to join whatever production cut is eventually agreed to and Norway has responded: it will be attending the Thursday meeting along with representatives from Alberta, Canada’s deeply troubled oil province.
Russia may not have directly targeted US shale, or maybe they did but we found out today that it’s working anyway. Exxon Mobil is cutting 10 billion dollars in spending and the majority of it will be in shale.
Well played Vladimir. Well played.
Unlimited Supercharger Subscription? I’m In!
A member of Reddit, MarksTech Came up with a fantastic idea for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA): create an unlimited Supercharging subscription for all models. People who purchase the upscale Model S and model X already get this as part of their purchase, but to drop it down to the Model 3, Model Y and Cybertruck would be a huge benefit.
A common argument against this idea is “Well that won’t really be effective since people will abuse the Supercharger network,” This argument was addressed by MarksTech by using his family carwash as an example. His family business has a $20 monthly service option for unlimited washes. He points out that $20 is usually good for two washes, but the idea of having access to unlimited washes for the price of two is appealing and people rarely get more than 2 a month. This could create a revenue stream for Tesla, that through statistics and actuaries could be profitable by itself immediately.
We also have no idea at this point how low gasoline prices are going to fall, and it’s a consideration when you look at the base price of even the least expensive Tesla. If your gas will be cheap, a carbon fuel car becomes more attractive. Knowing your electric vehicle fuel cost and locking in those cost would be a plus to anyone buying a vehicle.
It sounds like a good idea and Tesla is known for implementing the creative ideas of its customers in a way that will benefit all of them. We’ll see if Tesla ever implements this.
Pulley System For Pizza During Quarantine
A pair of Missouri roommates shared video of their COVID-19 compliant pizza delivery. They were able to get delivery, pay the driver cash and retrieve their food without leaving their second-floor apartment.
The video shows the residents lowering a box from the window of their apartment above a pawn shop in Parkhills. The cash payment for the pizza was in the box along with a tip.
The filmer and the roommate let the delivery driver know, and then ask the driver to place the pizza in the box to be raised back up to the window.
“Me and my roommate wanted pizza. We went online and saw the contactless way to get pizza, so we got a box with yarn, tied them together, and hung the box with the money in it out the window and asked to put the pizza in box,” the filmer posted.
When you have time to think of things like this, then you probably don’t have a valid “pay online” credit card, so why not. I agree with getting your pizza any way possible.
Pizza pulley systems. Not bad.