OECD’s Gurria says global economy probably in contraction

(C) Reuters. OECD’s Secretary General Gurria attends news conference at Chancellery in Berlin

PARIS (Reuters) – The impact of the coronavirus outbreak is making economic forecasting highly uncertain, though the global economy is probably in contraction, OECD chief Angel Gurria said on Thursday.

“Given the unprecedented events that are unfolding, it is too early to be confident in setting out new projections for economic growth,” Gurria said in written remarks prepared for the IMF’s spring meetings.

“It seems likely that global growth will be negative in the first half of 2020, but there is little certainty about the subsequent outlook,” he added.

The outbreak’s impact could result in a decline of 45% in international tourism alone this year, rising to 70% if the recovery is delayed until September, he said.