A new poll could mean big trouble for Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden; the poll shows President Trump beating Biden in 15 battleground states that will likely decide the election.
The states include: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. “The poll was conducted May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults, including 1,001 registered voters. The full nationwide survey had a margin of error of 3.7 points,” reports The Hill.
“The poll found Trump with a slight edge among independents, at 50% to 46%. It found Biden leads 55% to 41% among women and 69% to 26% among people of color, while Trump leads with white people 55 percent to 43 percent,” adds the website.
Both of those metrics are improvements from 2016. Women voters in 2016 went for Hillary Clinton 54% to 39%. Black voters went for Hillary 91% to 6% and hispanic voters fell 66% to 28% for Clinton.
So it’s not just the change in the recent polls which showed Biden leading, as recently as 3 weeks ago, but the shift amonst minority voters, from 2016, especially black voters, spells real trouble for the presumtive Democratic nominee.
Voters said they trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, 54% to 42%. Good news for Biden, however, in that he is more trusted to handle both the response to the coronavirus outbreak, 51% to 45%, and health care in general, 54% to 42% .
Did the Dems pick the wrong horse to go against Trump? Reply to this email and let us know what you think!!!!!
The V-Shape Recovery Fantasy
When you actually look at the data, you can come to only one conclusion; the V-shape recovery that many are hopinh begun in Mid-March is a fantasy. Here is just some of that data:
Industrial Production: Worst since 1919
Retail Sales: An epic miss versus Wall Street expectations.
Continuing Jobless Claims: Just hit 22,800,000. Total Since March-36 million
Consumer Price Index: Worst decline since December 2008
These are not guesses, these are actual figures and they are the figures from the early part of the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Many on Wall Street think that the worst numbers are behind us, and they are probably right in every metric…except for earnings. If even half of the data above is recovered, does this justify the NASDAQ being 8.3% from its all-time high (which is where it was as of Friday’s close)? That seems like the definition of over-valued and it’s likely what hedge fund manager David Tepper was looking at when he said on CNBC that this stock market is “maybe the second-most overvalued stock market I’ve ever seen. I would say ’99 was more overvalued.”
Central bank liquidity (or stimuls) has driven the rebound but it likely won’t be able to fix permenant damage being done to the economy. If we take a look at the Q-ratio of the S&P 500, it is showing a stock market that is only slightly less overvalued than it was at the most overvalued points of the last century. The Q-ratio plots the market value of a company divided by its assets’ replacement cost. A company is fairly valued when market value equals replacement cost. The broad stock market is well above equilibrium.
The V-shape recovery is a Marvel Studios level fantasy. Best case, we have a W, but it’s probably an L.
Do you think the stock market is overvalued? Reply to this email and let us know what you think!!!
ADOBE Systems Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE) Looks Strong
Adobe Systems Inc.’s (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock has climbed a whopping 358% over the last five years and has delivered a 10x return for buy and hold investors over the last 10 years.
Despite the downgrade by DZ Bank last week to Adobe Inc’s shares (NASDAQ: ADBE), we continue to see good upside potential given its business model and demand for technology services for the coming quarters. Technically, the stock made a pullback to its 21MA, and it held, rallying up from there which is bullish. The confirmation was a close above $357, which happened on Friday.
In our digitally connected world, consumers have more choices than ever before, and switching costs are often low. Brands need to stand out and create memorable experiences online to attract and retain customers. Adobe’s Digital Experience product suite has been helping businesses undergo this kind of digital transformation for the last decade. Adobe is investing heavily in this segment with two massive acquisitions in 2018: Marketo, a marketing cloud platform purchased for $4.7 billion; and Magento, an e-commerce platform, at a price of $1.6 billion. Adobe also bought TubeMogul in 2017, a video-advertising platform for $561 million.
Adobe’s Creative Cloud is it’s biggest single revenue generator. It is a broad set of tools for creative professionals that create content for advertising, video games, video, and more. Some of its most well-known products include Photoshop, Illustrator, and Lightroom. Between acquisitions and 10 years of building out this product suite, this segment has significant momentum which will enable it to grow in this massive $84 billion market.
The company’s financials are solid and allow a measured response to a COVID-19 downturn if needed. With 89% of revenue coming from subscriptions, it lets the company easily monitor what is happening to the top line, so it can manage costs appropriately. It ended the most recent quarter with $4.2 billion in cash and short-term investments with a tremendous $1.3 billion in cash generated from operations. CFO John Murphy ended his remarks in the last earnings call saying that its tremendous opportunity combined with its financial model “should enable us to deliver solid results as the world navigates the COVID-19 situation.” A conservative target for the stock is $383.00, which would be almost a 5% move from Friday’s close at $365.30.
Volvo Looks on The COVID-19 Brightside
Volvo CEO Håkan Samuelsson said that the coronavirus will accelerate the pace of change in the auto industry. He said the shift to EVs will be among the major changes that occur due to the pandemic. Speaking at a Financial Times global digital conference, Samuelsson said: Electrification will go faster. I think it would be naive to believe after some months, everything will return to normal, and our customers will come back into a showroom asking for diesel cars. They will ask even more for electric cars. And that is speeding up.
Moreover, he believes that any government efforts to subsidize the auto industry’s recovery should be based on supporting EVs and other new technology. If governments subsidize a return to the old world, I think would be a waste of money. They should use the money to promote new technology as they were planning to do before corona.
Volvo plans to launch an all-electric car every year for the next five years. By 2025, Volvo wants all-electric vehicles to represent 50% of its global sales.
In January, Volvo opened online orders for its first mass-produced EV — the Volvo XC40 Recharge. A $1,000 deposit is required for a reservation. The 402-horsepower all-electric crossover will provide more than 200 miles on a single charge. The first deliveries in the US are expected later this year.
Bugs and Wile E. Coyote in Real Life
Michael Bogan, a professor of wildlife biology in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment at the University of Arizona, tweeted the video of a coyote chasing after a roadrunner on the Santa Cruz River in downtown Tuscon on May 9.
“There is literally a coyote chasing a roadrunner,” Bogan is heard saying in the video. “I can’t believe it. That is a straight-up cartoon.”
Bogan’s Is obviously referring to the classic cartoon feud from looney tunes, between Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner, who always seems to outsmart the overly complicated plans of the coyote.
And just like in the cartoon, the real-life roadrunner escapes without a scratch. If there really was an Acme Corporation, as seen in the cartoon…we would have a sell rating. Their products never seem to work and oftentimes blow up the coyote before having any effect on the road runner. Sell the pretend Acme incorporated stock.