DECLINING corn output due to the El Niño will have a knock-on effect on the livestock sector through the reduced supply of animal feed, industry officials said.
If corn is not planted in the last quarter, “you will not have feed for the livestock, for the cattle, and for dairy animals,” Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., told BusinessWorld via phone.
Alfred Ng, vice-president of the National Federation of Hog Farmers, Inc. said the decline in the corn supply will manifest in increased feed costs.
He estimated that corn accounts for 60% of the composition and cost of most animal feed.
“Hog raisers, who are now operating on thin margins, will (have to absorb) higher feed costs,” he said.
Mr. Ng said that the prevailing price of domestically-grown feed corn is between P21 and P22. He expects some backyard hog raisers to incur losses due to lower liveweight prices and the higher cost of feed.
The government weather service, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), declared last week the onset of El Niño.
It said the weather pattern emerged in the tropical Pacific and is expected to persist until the first quarter of 2024.
El Niño typically brings with it dry spells and droughts, while strengthening typhoons.
Mr. Fausto said he is watching out for the water allocation from the dams, which typically grant priority to residential users over irrigation.
The National Water Resources Board has said it will cut the water allocation for Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) and the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) if the level of the dam falls below the minimum operating level of 180 meters.
The MWSS will receive 48 cubic meters per second (cms), down from the current 50 cms, while NIA will be allocated 20 cms, down from 38.5 cms until the end of July.
The water level at Angat Dam on Sunday morning was 179.56 meters, PAGASA said. It first fell below the 180-meter level early Saturday, when it returned a reading of 179.99 meters. On Friday, the reading was 180.45 meters.
OTHER COMMODITIESMr. Fausto said the fisheries sector, particularly aquaculture, may also be affected because lower water levels could result in fish kill.
“If the water level (in fishponds) falls, you have to reduce the loading of fingerlings,” he said. “If you overload, it might cause fish kill.”
Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said the El Niño’s effects could spill over onto the 2024 rice supply.
“Because the dams will not be filled, there will be much less water to irrigate during the dry season in the first semester of 2024, so when we go into the lean months next year from July to September, we could have very limited stocks available,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
“During the (1997-1998) El Niño, we experienced a 24% drop in palay production. In more recent El Niño years, the reduction in output averaged only 3-5%,” he said.
In 1998, agricultural output dropped 6.67%, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
Enrique D. Rojas, president of the National Federation of Sugarcane Planters, said in an e-mail interview that the sugarcane production is projected to decline with the coming of dry weather.
“The onset of El Niño, and its lingering presence until the middle of next year, will worsen matters and cause a more significant drop in production,” he said.
“It’s too risky to quantify El Niño’s effects on sugar production; we can only pray that the monsoons will be kinder to the crops,” he added.
NIA Administrator Eduardo Eddie G. Guillen told BusinessWorld by phone that the agency has “prepared solar and water pumps for farmers; we also have high-value crop inputs like corn and mung beans so that they can still plant.”
The DA has identified 28 provinces expected to experience dry conditions, 36 provinces dry spells, and two provinces drought.
PAGASA defines dry conditions as two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall. It classifies rainfall as below normal with declines of 21-60%.
It classifies two consecutive months of more than 60% rainfall decline as dry spells.
It defines droughts as five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.
Asked about areas of focus for irrigation, Mr. Guillen said: “We treat all provinces equally. We have prepared interventions to those that will be affected while we will also focus our production to those areas that are not likely to be hit.” —Sheldeen Joy Talavera